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Andrew Isbester
Chief Executive der ES AG, eine Tochter der Gossweiler Media AG. |
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That PC on your desktop is sinking |
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Personal computers are on the way out. How many times have we heard that over the last fifteen years? Five or ten times? With regularity, loud-voiced silicon valley demagogues and bitter software chief executives trying to stop the Microsoft juggernaut relish proclaiming the imminent demise of that poor embattled creature, the PC. The difference is that now it might actually be happening. Yet if it is, the PC is making a silent and gentle exit, void of any feverish catcalling and sour I-told-you-sos. Instead, it is being stealthily replaced by the quiet appearance of a completely new type of information technology architecture: the thin client and the application service provider.
Application service providers, for those who have never heard of them, are simply companies whose job it is to rent out or run, for a set fee, applications and computers to third parties. To make the system work, ASPs frequently use browser-based applications that their clients access either through the internet or by a direct telecommunications link. Current practice in the U.S. shows that ASPs have acquired the rather unusual
industry habit of guaranteeing 99.7 pct uptime to their customers - which is where thin
clients come into the picture. Thin clients are essentially a networked screen and
keyboard that project a users‘ interaction with the ASP‘s server. They have far
fewer moving parts than PCs do, no CD-ROM or disk drives. Employees cannot tamper with
operating systems, change configurations, or install programs that are incompatible with
the overall IT architecture or network. Using them is the only way ASPs can reliably
guarantee uptime.
Right now, this model appears looks set to become the prevailing information technology
architecture for businesses. Logically, it has immense consequences for the mammoth IT
infrastructures built up over the years by global corporations and medium sized companies.
Soon, when they get it, senior managers at the aforementioned companies will seriously
question why they have to own their own PCs, or spend billions purchasing and integrating
complex enterprise resource planning systems (ERPs). And, why should they? Instead, they
can rent what they need, outsource everything else, while getting automatic updates,
replacements and guaranteed reliability.
If you do not believe the ASP/thin client model is coming -- a few facts. A Zona Research
study says around 617,000 thin clients were shipped worldwide last year, up 76 pct from
the year before, when 350,000 were delivered. And Zona predicts that around 918,000 units
will ship this year. IT managers in Europe, probably not as aware of the ASP model as
their U.S. counterparts are, better be prepared, because the ASP-thin client model will
have far-reaching consequences. Another fact: Microsoft, Cable & Wireless and Compaq
recently started a joint ASP called a-Services that targets businesses with 10 to 1000
employees. It offers hosted versions of a comprehensive palette of applications, including
Microsoft Office. a-Services delivers the network connection to customers along with the
necessary number of Compaq thin clients. The aforementioned companies are among the
biggest names in their respective businesses so if they are in the ASP game, it cannot
mean anything other than a wholesale industry shift.
The current trend towards ASPs and thin clients can be seen as a sign that the global IT
industry is finally outgrowing its adolescent phase. We are finally seeing a mature
balance between centralised and distributed computing following the excesses towards the
former during the mainframe era and the trend towards the latter during the subsequent PC
one. In all, the internet appears to be disciplining and standardising the industry to a
far greater degree than anything previously seen. It is also laying the foundation for a
far more stable and reliable IT future.
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